At vero eos et accusamus et iusto odio dignissimos ducimus qui blanditiis praesentium voluptatum deleniti atque corrupti quos dolores et quas molestias excepturi sint occaecati cupiditate non provident, similique sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollitia animi, id est...
2009年8月10日
Commodity Market Commentary - June 2009
Tiberius 公司是以原物料基金的操作為主力,它的月報是我第一次從網路上看到。19頁報告去頭去尾也還有17頁的內容,最新的月報共有三個部份,分別為是基金績效的說明;股市現況與展望;原物料商品市場的展望。
它先從6月底美國農業部所公告的農產品種植面積報告,將小麥、玉米、大豆的市場供需與價格掃描了一遍,基本上,小麥與大豆都因為產量驟增而壓低市場價格,而玉米則因為出乎預期的種植面積大增也產生了供過於求的訊息,導致玉米價格重挫。
至於其他有關金屬、能源相關的評論大致都與中國需求以及全球景氣變化有較大的關連。


我個人在閱讀此報告時,認為有二個部份是值得再看一次:
第一個是它們對全球股市反彈的看法,它們將此次衰退與2001年的衰退期間股市表現做了技術分析與特殊事件的比較。其中主要是著眼在三項因素:911事件、地綠政治(阿富汗)與法人機構的動態。它們認為最近的股市反彈仍然還有軋空行情,堆高股市指數。
第二個是它們說明在原物料商品的配對交易策略。包括做多石油+放空天然氣;做多鈀金屬+放空鉑金屬;做多小麥、玉米+放空大豆。
因為近年來接觸有關原物料市場的資訊時,深深覺得氣候因素、人口因素、經濟因素影響原物料商品價格甚為明顯,雖然也知道人類活動就是離不開吃喝,這也是原物料題材永遠會是主流的原因,但是要從中賺到財富,仍然是要對剛才所提到的影響因素有所了解才能解讀市場,話說回來,每日追蹤研究原物料資訊的投資人是否就從中賺到錢?起碼我是還沒有從中賺到堪稱「財富」的資產。
對於原物料市場,日後會搭配此公司月報與DIAOPSON COMMODITY REPORT 一塊閱讀。
Read More
它先從6月底美國農業部所公告的農產品種植面積報告,將小麥、玉米、大豆的市場供需與價格掃描了一遍,基本上,小麥與大豆都因為產量驟增而壓低市場價格,而玉米則因為出乎預期的種植面積大增也產生了供過於求的訊息,導致玉米價格重挫。
至於其他有關金屬、能源相關的評論大致都與中國需求以及全球景氣變化有較大的關連。


我個人在閱讀此報告時,認為有二個部份是值得再看一次:
第一個是它們對全球股市反彈的看法,它們將此次衰退與2001年的衰退期間股市表現做了技術分析與特殊事件的比較。其中主要是著眼在三項因素:911事件、地綠政治(阿富汗)與法人機構的動態。它們認為最近的股市反彈仍然還有軋空行情,堆高股市指數。
第二個是它們說明在原物料商品的配對交易策略。包括做多石油+放空天然氣;做多鈀金屬+放空鉑金屬;做多小麥、玉米+放空大豆。
因為近年來接觸有關原物料市場的資訊時,深深覺得氣候因素、人口因素、經濟因素影響原物料商品價格甚為明顯,雖然也知道人類活動就是離不開吃喝,這也是原物料題材永遠會是主流的原因,但是要從中賺到財富,仍然是要對剛才所提到的影響因素有所了解才能解讀市場,話說回來,每日追蹤研究原物料資訊的投資人是否就從中賺到錢?起碼我是還沒有從中賺到堪稱「財富」的資產。
對於原物料市場,日後會搭配此公司月報與DIAOPSON COMMODITY REPORT 一塊閱讀。
2009年8月8日
Outlook evolution of this blog 網站演化記錄
v1.0 陽春版,純粹記錄 HF Industry 的消息與報告

v2.0 動畫版,記錄 HF Industry 的消息與報告,再加上其他網路上匯集而來多媒體資訊。
建議到可以到http://btemplates.com/看看,有幾百種免費套件讓你直接使用。當然,重要的還是內容資訊的更新與維護。
建議到可以到http://btemplates.com/看看,有幾百種免費套件讓你直接使用。當然,重要的還是內容資訊的更新與維護。
Man Investment- 2009Q2 quarterly review & special topic
Man investment 每季都會出版一份季報,向來是一份投資避險基金的投資人或是業界人士都會閱讀的產業報告。因為該集團向來對外一再強調他們在研究資源的著力與重視,而且他們也的確一直都會提供研究報告給合作伙伴,讓他們能夠有效的更新避險基金產業的脈動與Man investment旗下商品的績效。
最新的這份季報幾天前剛出爐,包括兩大部份:
前半部內容是分析說明各類避險基金策略的績效表現與整體產業資產的變化。當然,隨著金融秩序的穩定之後,避險基金也是回春復原的非常明顯,其中又以新興市場股票多空策略及可轉債策略反彈最大、績效顯著;但是去年的倍受追捧的獲利策略-管理期貨策略則是反差的表現不佳。
後半部內容則是整理了產業結構現況與檢討。我認為不脫離:"Hedge fund tomorrow"與"New views of the hedge fund industry"的範圍,只是再次證明,避險基金的改造聲浪已經漸次要發生作用了。因為經過這段期間許多專業媒體與機構投資人的要求,透明度、流動性、資產管理權等等議題,避險基金很難再坐視不理。

Read More
最新的這份季報幾天前剛出爐,包括兩大部份:
前半部內容是分析說明各類避險基金策略的績效表現與整體產業資產的變化。當然,隨著金融秩序的穩定之後,避險基金也是回春復原的非常明顯,其中又以新興市場股票多空策略及可轉債策略反彈最大、績效顯著;但是去年的倍受追捧的獲利策略-管理期貨策略則是反差的表現不佳。

後半部內容則是整理了產業結構現況與檢討。我認為不脫離:"Hedge fund tomorrow"與"New views of the hedge fund industry"的範圍,只是再次證明,避險基金的改造聲浪已經漸次要發生作用了。因為經過這段期間許多專業媒體與機構投資人的要求,透明度、流動性、資產管理權等等議題,避險基金很難再坐視不理。

2009年8月5日
Hedged mutual funds (HMFs) may be a dominant trend in next hedge fund industry cycle
「避險式共同基金」會是下一波避險基金產業的新潮流?這是一個值得關注的話題。避險基金被攻擊的成本結構、投資組合透明度、申贖流動性,似乎是有了新的替代方案。但是這個方案仍然是一個還不成熟的投資工具-Hedged Mutual Fund。
Opalesque這家另類投資界的媒體,近日有發表關於HMF 的觀察報導,是值得看看,其中也引用一家 K&L Gates 在研討會中發表有關避險基金產業發展現狀簡報,其內容就提到有關HMF的資訊,值得一看。
一個綜合共同基金、避險基金投資概念、投資工具的新投資載具,已經成形了。
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hedged mutual funds (HMFs) may be a dominant trend in next hedge fund industry cycle By Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque London:
Last year, hedge funds lost on average 20%. But mutual funds lost around twice as much. However, there is a marked trend towards a convergence between the two styles and structures, particularly in the U.S.
Mutual funds have been under pressure for a while, what with underperformance and competition from the better-yielding alternative investment funds, and the cheaper ETFS and other index funds. So they are starting to use the clever tools that came out of the investment world's laboratories, namely: alternative investment funds, to generate higher returns. So the retail market can now access such tools as shorting, leverage (although not as much as with hedge funds due to regulations), derivatives, etc. for less fees, more transparency, better liquidity and more regulatory oversight.
Naik, Agarwal and Boyson, in their 2007 working paper entitled "Hedge Funds for Retail Investors? An Examination of Hedged Mutual Funds" (Hedge Fund Centre, London Business School) predicted that "...hedged mutual funds will play an increasingly important role in the field of investment management as they provide access to hedge-fund like strategies with the fee structure, liquidity, and regulatory requirements of mutual funds."
Next cycle?
According to a Greenwich, CT based consultancy firm Lake Partners' report on The State of the Hedge Fund Industry, produced in conjunction with international law firm K&L Gates and presented by webinar on 30 June-09, the hedge fund industry has had quite a few cycles of renaissance and wreckage including:
Cycle 1 - 1949-1970s, started with A.W. Jones, ending in the "dark ages";
Cycle 2 - 1980-1990, Golden Era cumulating to a market correction;
Cycle 3 - 1991-94, recovery and "masters of the universe";
Cycle 4 - 1995-98, bull market to margin calls;
Cycle 5 - 1999-2002, bull market ending in bear market;
Cycle 6 - 2003-2009, from institutionalisation to retrenchment.
The next cycle in the hedge fund industry chronicles might well be that of convergence between styles and structures for greater access to the retail market.
Democratization of alternative strategies
Lake Partners noted a definite trend towards democratization of alternative strategies as the latter is moving into mutual funds.
It all started in 1997 with the SEC's repeal of the "short-short" Rule, when the first mutual fund practitioners initiated more hedging. The following year, the first dedicated "hedge mutual funds" were created. (Note: Here is a link to a related research paper by K-H. Bae and J. Yi, which found that the timing performance of mutual fund managers improved significantly after the short-short rule repeal: "The Impact of the Short-Short Rule Repeal on the Timing Ability of Mutual Funds".)
According to Forbes.com, Robert Gordon, CEO of New York-based investment firm Twenty-First Securities, pioneered the mutual fund with a hedge fund style earlier than that, in 1985 in fact, under the management of now legendary money runner Robert Stovall - although the fund never became profitable. Gordon says he still thinks they're a good idea. "But they don't have the same cache" as a hedge fund. "You don't get the same thrill."
Now, we are seeing a rapid growth in AuM and in the variety of the alternative mutual funds and structures. Indeed, the alternative mutual fund industry has grown from $1.3bn in 1997 to $100bn (est.) in 2009 (YTD).
Hedge funds and other asset managers launching alternative mutual funds
It is not just mutual funds that are launching funds using alternative strategies; there is also a trend of hedge fund managers launching mutual funds - as they seek to attract capital from the retail market. Indeed, one can invest in such a fund with only a few thousand dollars.
Greenwich, CT-based hedge fund firm AQR Capital Management for example, is now offering new mutual funds. David Kabiller, founding principal of AQR, told ConnPost.com earlier this month that he did not think this trend would catch on among hedge funds: "There's a lot of cost and oversight to developing a mutual fund company. To take on those costs, you have to be able to innovate those products."
Only this month, we heard of U.S. firm Fred Alger Management, which is preparing to launch a long/short equity mutual fund; New York-based asset manager Van Eck Global, which is launching a new mutual fund that invests in hedge funds; Bull Path Capital Management LLC in New York, which recently converted the domestic version of its hedge fund into a mutual fund; and North Carolina-based hedge fund firm Hatteras Funds, which acquired AIP Mutual Funds, and with it the management of two mutual funds of hedge funds (see Opalesque Exclusive).
There is also U.S. investment adviser Driehaus Capital Management, which has just launched an absolute return mutual fund; FundQuest, a U.S. and European managed account services provider, which has expanded its alternative investments offering with hedge-style mutual funds; and Andrew W. Lo, the famed finance professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who has recently launched a mutual fund providing hedge-fund-like strategies.(interview video below)
By Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque London:
This is the second of a two-part article. Part One was published yesterday and can be found here Source
What are HMFs?
According to the Lake Partners report, hedged mutual funds are open-end investment companies registered under the US Investment Company Act of 1940 which implement their underlying portfolios using hedging strategies or investments on an ongoing, regular or periodic basis. Although open-end mutual funds are not the only ones in the game: registered closed-end funds, ETFs and ETNs also use these strategies.
Strategies include long/short investing, hedging (options, futures, derivatives, etc.) and alternative strategies (commodities, leverage, derivatives, illiquid private placement or distressed securities and other instruments).
Hedged mutual funds provide access to alternative strategies with lower costs, more oversight, and better liquidity and transparency than hedge funds, says the report. Their regulatory safeguards include independent custody, limitations on leverage, liquidity and daily pricing, and lower costs.
Investing in HMFs
These funds indeed offer an opportunity for investors and professionals to have greater choice, additional sources of potential returns, more tools for risk management and enhanced diversification.
Those driving the current and future marketplace for hedged mutual funds are mainly: investors (individuals, HNWIs, family offices); investment professionals (manufacturers, advisors, alternatives managers); fiduciaries, foundations, endowments; and retirements plans.
According to Investopedia.com, unlike retail hedge funds, which have higher minimums that require some level of investor accreditation, this breed of mutual fund enjoys the same level of accessibility as the more commonplace active and passive strategies available across the traditional equity and fixed income style boxes.
Traditional mutual funds' load fees are around 3% and expense ratio fees are around 1% to 2% - although there are other one-off fees too. However, according to Investopedia, HMFs' fees are often higher than those of the typical actively managed mutual fund; the fee range for hedged products can be from 2.5% to 4% or more.
HMFs underperform hedge funds but outperform mutual funds
In their study, Naik, Agarwal and Boyson found that despite their use of similar trading strategies, hedged mutual funds underperform hedge funds : "We attribute this evidence to lighter regulation and better incentives faced by hedge funds", says the paper's abstract. "In contrast, hedged mutual funds outperform traditional mutual funds. Most interesting, this superior performance is largely driven by managers with experience in implementing hedge fund strategies."
So hedge fund managers would do well in the mutual fund arena. We could also conclude from this that if hedge funds outperform HMFs due to lighter regulation, the forthcoming, heavier, regulations on hedge funds, both in Europe and in the US, might affect hedge funds' performance significantly.
The Lake Partners report estimates that hedged mutual funds (HMFs) could outperform traditional mutual funds by as much as 4.8% p.a.
A Morningstar fund analyst recently mentioned two HMFs to CNN's Money Magazine: the Merger Fund and Hussman Strategic Growth. Both move out of sync with the S&P 500 and did well during the bear market but less well in the rebound. Over the past five years, Merger has gained an annualized 6.3%, Hussman 7.5% (Morningstar is tracking some 54 HMFs).
BusinessWeek.com mentioned another HMFs last month, a fairly new offering called the Nakoma Absolute Return Fund: the fund is up almost 6% YTD, trailing the S&P 500 by about 3%, a little better than the managers' historical performance in bull markets.
Read More
Opalesque這家另類投資界的媒體,近日有發表關於HMF 的觀察報導,是值得看看,其中也引用一家 K&L Gates 在研討會中發表有關避險基金產業發展現狀簡報,其內容就提到有關HMF的資訊,值得一看。
一個綜合共同基金、避險基金投資概念、投資工具的新投資載具,已經成形了。

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hedged mutual funds (HMFs) may be a dominant trend in next hedge fund industry cycle By Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque London:
Last year, hedge funds lost on average 20%. But mutual funds lost around twice as much. However, there is a marked trend towards a convergence between the two styles and structures, particularly in the U.S.
Mutual funds have been under pressure for a while, what with underperformance and competition from the better-yielding alternative investment funds, and the cheaper ETFS and other index funds. So they are starting to use the clever tools that came out of the investment world's laboratories, namely: alternative investment funds, to generate higher returns. So the retail market can now access such tools as shorting, leverage (although not as much as with hedge funds due to regulations), derivatives, etc. for less fees, more transparency, better liquidity and more regulatory oversight.
Naik, Agarwal and Boyson, in their 2007 working paper entitled "Hedge Funds for Retail Investors? An Examination of Hedged Mutual Funds" (Hedge Fund Centre, London Business School) predicted that "...hedged mutual funds will play an increasingly important role in the field of investment management as they provide access to hedge-fund like strategies with the fee structure, liquidity, and regulatory requirements of mutual funds."
Next cycle?
According to a Greenwich, CT based consultancy firm Lake Partners' report on The State of the Hedge Fund Industry, produced in conjunction with international law firm K&L Gates and presented by webinar on 30 June-09, the hedge fund industry has had quite a few cycles of renaissance and wreckage including:
Cycle 1 - 1949-1970s, started with A.W. Jones, ending in the "dark ages";
Cycle 2 - 1980-1990, Golden Era cumulating to a market correction;
Cycle 3 - 1991-94, recovery and "masters of the universe";
Cycle 4 - 1995-98, bull market to margin calls;
Cycle 5 - 1999-2002, bull market ending in bear market;
Cycle 6 - 2003-2009, from institutionalisation to retrenchment.
The next cycle in the hedge fund industry chronicles might well be that of convergence between styles and structures for greater access to the retail market.
Democratization of alternative strategies
Lake Partners noted a definite trend towards democratization of alternative strategies as the latter is moving into mutual funds.
It all started in 1997 with the SEC's repeal of the "short-short" Rule, when the first mutual fund practitioners initiated more hedging. The following year, the first dedicated "hedge mutual funds" were created. (Note: Here is a link to a related research paper by K-H. Bae and J. Yi, which found that the timing performance of mutual fund managers improved significantly after the short-short rule repeal: "The Impact of the Short-Short Rule Repeal on the Timing Ability of Mutual Funds".)
According to Forbes.com, Robert Gordon, CEO of New York-based investment firm Twenty-First Securities, pioneered the mutual fund with a hedge fund style earlier than that, in 1985 in fact, under the management of now legendary money runner Robert Stovall - although the fund never became profitable. Gordon says he still thinks they're a good idea. "But they don't have the same cache" as a hedge fund. "You don't get the same thrill."
Now, we are seeing a rapid growth in AuM and in the variety of the alternative mutual funds and structures. Indeed, the alternative mutual fund industry has grown from $1.3bn in 1997 to $100bn (est.) in 2009 (YTD).
Hedge funds and other asset managers launching alternative mutual funds
It is not just mutual funds that are launching funds using alternative strategies; there is also a trend of hedge fund managers launching mutual funds - as they seek to attract capital from the retail market. Indeed, one can invest in such a fund with only a few thousand dollars.
Greenwich, CT-based hedge fund firm AQR Capital Management for example, is now offering new mutual funds. David Kabiller, founding principal of AQR, told ConnPost.com earlier this month that he did not think this trend would catch on among hedge funds: "There's a lot of cost and oversight to developing a mutual fund company. To take on those costs, you have to be able to innovate those products."
Only this month, we heard of U.S. firm Fred Alger Management, which is preparing to launch a long/short equity mutual fund; New York-based asset manager Van Eck Global, which is launching a new mutual fund that invests in hedge funds; Bull Path Capital Management LLC in New York, which recently converted the domestic version of its hedge fund into a mutual fund; and North Carolina-based hedge fund firm Hatteras Funds, which acquired AIP Mutual Funds, and with it the management of two mutual funds of hedge funds (see Opalesque Exclusive).
There is also U.S. investment adviser Driehaus Capital Management, which has just launched an absolute return mutual fund; FundQuest, a U.S. and European managed account services provider, which has expanded its alternative investments offering with hedge-style mutual funds; and Andrew W. Lo, the famed finance professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who has recently launched a mutual fund providing hedge-fund-like strategies.(interview video below)
By Benedicte Gravrand, Opalesque London:
This is the second of a two-part article. Part One was published yesterday and can be found here Source
What are HMFs?
According to the Lake Partners report, hedged mutual funds are open-end investment companies registered under the US Investment Company Act of 1940 which implement their underlying portfolios using hedging strategies or investments on an ongoing, regular or periodic basis. Although open-end mutual funds are not the only ones in the game: registered closed-end funds, ETFs and ETNs also use these strategies.
Strategies include long/short investing, hedging (options, futures, derivatives, etc.) and alternative strategies (commodities, leverage, derivatives, illiquid private placement or distressed securities and other instruments).
Hedged mutual funds provide access to alternative strategies with lower costs, more oversight, and better liquidity and transparency than hedge funds, says the report. Their regulatory safeguards include independent custody, limitations on leverage, liquidity and daily pricing, and lower costs.
Investing in HMFs
These funds indeed offer an opportunity for investors and professionals to have greater choice, additional sources of potential returns, more tools for risk management and enhanced diversification.
Those driving the current and future marketplace for hedged mutual funds are mainly: investors (individuals, HNWIs, family offices); investment professionals (manufacturers, advisors, alternatives managers); fiduciaries, foundations, endowments; and retirements plans.
According to Investopedia.com, unlike retail hedge funds, which have higher minimums that require some level of investor accreditation, this breed of mutual fund enjoys the same level of accessibility as the more commonplace active and passive strategies available across the traditional equity and fixed income style boxes.
Traditional mutual funds' load fees are around 3% and expense ratio fees are around 1% to 2% - although there are other one-off fees too. However, according to Investopedia, HMFs' fees are often higher than those of the typical actively managed mutual fund; the fee range for hedged products can be from 2.5% to 4% or more.
HMFs underperform hedge funds but outperform mutual funds
In their study, Naik, Agarwal and Boyson found that despite their use of similar trading strategies, hedged mutual funds underperform hedge funds : "We attribute this evidence to lighter regulation and better incentives faced by hedge funds", says the paper's abstract. "In contrast, hedged mutual funds outperform traditional mutual funds. Most interesting, this superior performance is largely driven by managers with experience in implementing hedge fund strategies."
So hedge fund managers would do well in the mutual fund arena. We could also conclude from this that if hedge funds outperform HMFs due to lighter regulation, the forthcoming, heavier, regulations on hedge funds, both in Europe and in the US, might affect hedge funds' performance significantly.
The Lake Partners report estimates that hedged mutual funds (HMFs) could outperform traditional mutual funds by as much as 4.8% p.a.
A Morningstar fund analyst recently mentioned two HMFs to CNN's Money Magazine: the Merger Fund and Hussman Strategic Growth. Both move out of sync with the S&P 500 and did well during the bear market but less well in the rebound. Over the past five years, Merger has gained an annualized 6.3%, Hussman 7.5% (Morningstar is tracking some 54 HMFs).
BusinessWeek.com mentioned another HMFs last month, a fairly new offering called the Nakoma Absolute Return Fund: the fund is up almost 6% YTD, trailing the S&P 500 by about 3%, a little better than the managers' historical performance in bull markets.
2009年8月4日
CME Group-Managed Futures Resource Center

找尋有關管理期貨策略在1983年刋出的經典文章:"The Potential Role of Managed Commodity – Financial Futures Accounts (and/or Funds) in Portfolios of Stocks and Bonds" (此文John Lintner所撰寫,他是一位Harvard Professor),在google 過程中,發現CME 的資源中心有幾篇有關管理期貨的相關資料,當然也包括了John Lintner的經典文章,還有網路簡報-A Former Institutional Investor’s Perspective on Managed Futures,可以聽聽他們怎麼介紹管理期貨策略。簡報資料相當豐富。

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